Emmanuel Macron has won the presidential election in a landslide victory. The establishment candidate left the anti-establishment rival behind. The man who was not much in spotlight before the campaign started is president now. Much has been said about the 2017 election - a very special event in the history of France with all political heavyweights failing to get into the run-off. But there is a very important aspect mainstream media fail to mention – Marine Le Pen is on the way to become president in five years. Her chances are great. Here is why.
She is the second popular politician and she learns, while Macron has a good chance to follow the fate of his predecessor, François Hollande, with popularity rating descending to record low.
Gay or not gay matters little in France but what if he is? If the recently published stories are right, Macron will be in real trouble because he lied to the voters. If hard drugs add to the scandal, the president-elect will suffer a heavy blow. He just had good luck as the scoop hit media headlines too late to influence the election outcome. A liar will have little respect home and internationally.
France faces parliamentary elections this June. Macron’s movement En Marche! is not predicted to gain majority. Who’ll form a coalition government? Socialists and Republicans? Or is a non-party government possible? None of the scenarios will make the president stronger.
On the international scene, President Macron will be navigating troubled waters between the US and Russia, the EU and Great Britain. Will he be able to not be lost in the background of presidents Putin and Trump, Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel? There is a surge in pro-independence sentiment in France, including among those who belong to the elite. The French strive for becoming a great power again. Can globalist Macron define and defend the real national interests of his country?
This is the wrong time for politicians sticking to the pre-EU platform. The EU is going through crisis. It is gradually falling apart to change the political landscape of the Old Continent. The rebellion is at the door. The concept of multi-speed Europe has become a dividing factor to be opposed by many EU members. The White Paper on the Future of Europe has actually nothing to offer.
With no fresh ideas to turn the tide, the pro-EU Macron may frustrate the supporters and make the EU opponents angrier. France may lose its position as a European leader acting in tandem with Germany. Saving the EU and European integration is a tall order but Macron has no choice but come up with something drastic to offer. Will he stand up to the task?
Even if Macron does not fail and runs for the second term in 2022, Le Pen will have a bigger chance. The situation with migrants will greatly exacerbate by the time. Less people will perceive the National Front as an extremist party. The rise of so-called populist parties, opposing further integration and migration policy, is on the way. Present in all member states, they hold one-third of all seats in the European Parliament. The anti-immigration slogans are doomed to grow more popular to make Marine Le Pen President in May 2022 at only 53.
The win of Macron does not signify that the process of opposing globalism started with Brexit and the Trump’s victory is over. It’s a step behind before taking more steps ahead. Nothing is lost and nothing can prevent Le Pen from becoming president when the time is propitious. She has only five years to wait.